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Paulawurm

Peak Oil

38 posts in this topic

So I kinda didn't know whether to put this in News or conspiracies. But I figure it's more of a fact than a theory.

Some of may have heard of Peak Oil, but for the ones who havn't:

Every Oilfield starts off pumping slowly and pumps and a higher and higher rate. At some point that increase stops, the rate stagnates and eventually declines. So if every single oilfield has that, they all added together also have that. A Peak of Production. Peak Oil.

When they say that there is enough oil for 30 or so more years, then that's just half the truth. In not too long (I am looking at 10-15 years) we may have to face gigantic problems concerning everything in our lives that has to do with oil. Sooo basically everything. From your toothbrush over your toothpaste to the tube in which you keep it. You need oil. To grow food, to harvest it, to package it and to transport it, you need oil. And of course the fact that more than 50% of the USA's energy is supplied by oil (or coal). And that means JUST electricity. Most of it is used of course for cars.

So once the oil starts getting produced slower.. what then?

Are there gonna be wars over oil, that bring us even deeper into the crisis? Is the world how we know it damned to fall and we can say that we lived not just through peaked oil but also through the peak of human civilization? Or is nothing gonna happen? Is it okay to keep the naive attitude of "It's gonna be all right" or should we start preparing? What is the best way of preparation?

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Green tech your house, get an electric car and buy land where you can provide your self with enough supplies to last. IE Grow your own food live near a stream.

We will just take oil after so long. Most will be bought out of Russia due to their ballistic stock of oil they have amassed.

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You know what? That's exactly the kind of thing I was thinking. But it's just so hard to admit to yourself that that is nessecary. I mean do YOU live like that?

To me that would mean leaving everything that I grew up with (the luxourus lifestyle of the past decades) behind. It is so difficult.

Btw I don't think that in an environment like that you'd be able to supply enough energy for a car engine. Nor you'd have the means of repairing the car yourself.

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Use nuclear power

Imagine if we did switch to nuclear power. Homes could be heated with clean electricity instead of oil, or gas. Electric cars would be fueled by sources that required no carbon. We could reduce our green house gases by more than 60% in a short time.

However, this technology is stopped because of the vocal demand of misguided environmentalists and people scared of modern technology.

Unless we can discover nuclear fusion, nuclear power plants are the future!

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i, personally, think that solar & wind power are the solutions, along with nuclear, where its feasible to build reactors

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Yea nuclear power is good, but in Germany everybody is totally loosing their minds cuz of Japan, so our plants are gonna be shut down until maybe 2020 or something. Sad thing.

But we also gotta keep in mind, that even nuclear fission needs resources. Assuming we do not discover cold fusion, the problem of us, using up what we have remains. I mean there is no infinite supply of uranium.

And I am really not sure about "renewable energy" other than water power. The only reason why they can even build wind and solar power plants is that governments fund it due to public pressure. And half of the studies on photovoltaic say that the production needs more energy than it even generates. So.. idk.

Also all of these things don't solve the problem, that you need oil to MAKE solar panels. Or to make tires for your electricity fueled car. Or your PC. Or your drinks. Or your shoes.

No matter how I turn it, it seems like the world will have to change severely.

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We could power our entire country with solar, but we would need to produce over 10,000x the amount of panels we do now. Of course that would require a lot of money.

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Solar isn't exactly reliable though...

Our best bet with current tech is nuclear was my point. Yea uranium won't last forever, but it produces way less waste and I haven't heard any reports of the stuff running out any time soon :thumbsup:

I suggest we power our homes with potatoes

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Just because you havn't heard of it yet doesn't mean it that the problem doesn't exist.

So when a few years ago I did some research on the topic the numbers varied between 20 and 70 years. 20 is a lie that some green hippie made up though I think haha

Anyway, the phenomenon of Peak Oil also applies to Uranium so even if it lasted for 70 more years (assuming current energy demand), we'd have a decline in production in less than half the time. Other than that I agree that it is a beautiful way of generating energy.

And .. well good luck building that many solar panels to be able to fuel a lamp while it's bright outside :p

Without oil it remains a problem how to transport goods over large distances. I mean there is noo battery so far powerful enough to fuel a plane. In fact not even a car.

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The only problem with solar panels is its quantity over quality at this point. The material used only harnesses a max of 2% Energy to Electricity at this point. Find something that can get 4% you now only have to make 5,000x, find something that can get 50% and you just cured the oil addiction.

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Good Point.

Except even if you did have 50% (which is absolutely unrealistic, cuz even Oil isn't that efficient), then you'd still have to increase the number of solar panels by 40000% (!)

And that just gives you an only unreliable supply of electricity. If you'd include the energy needed to sustain our traffic, or heating our house you talk about probably five times as much.

And no way of storing that energy good enough to fuel something like a ship or a plane. With current technology not even a car.

Solar power is not good enough.

I personally think that we probably have to start accepting that we will face a society in which we grow our own food again. No TV and no car.

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Best: Nuclear

Least emissions: Hydro/Solar

Most efficient: Fusion when/if we get to it

Renewability: Wind

And if you want to look at it this way, ALL fuels will run out at some point, for things like the sun its just an absurdly long time.

OR

This

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Okay, let's assume that the sun doesn't run out okay? haha Because after that, life on earth is over anyway so whatever.

But I like that salt reactor, though I didn't really understand much about how it works. I have never heard of it before.

Good job though at totally ignoring the point I made, that we can't store the energy and that so much stuff is made from oil. Stuff that we aren't able to make with just Energy + Carbon = toothpaste/tires/pesticides/hygiene articles/medication/...

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We don't need to store energy if its transported to where it needs to go. Its not that we can't use electricity to power planes and cars, its that we haven't found the technology to yet. Just like Nuclear Fusion.

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Right. But how does that make a difference? Maybe we find some technology to save our ass.

But what if not? (and that "if not" is likelier than you'd want to expect)

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You never know what the next break through is. But like I said. We won't run out of oil anytime soon. Russia has enough stored to last 7 generations. What they charge for it is a different story.

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You never know what the next break through is. But like I said. We won't run out of oil anytime soon. Russia has enough stored to last 7 generations. What they charge for it is a different story.

Uhmm.. that is exactly the problem with the concept of Peak Oil. The numbers say that we are running out of oil RIGHT NOW! Not because it's gone but because we cannot pump it fast enough.

It's like we are driving a car really fast towards a cliff. We all know the cliff is there. We just assume that somebody is gonna build a bridge though, before we fall off. But it's already to late to stop now. Maybe 20 years ago we could have. Soon we are gonna be falling down the cliff. Maybe you guys are right and somebody happens to find a parachute to save us before we hit the ground. But is that really what we should speculate on? Seems naive, doesn't it?

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Its more like, our kids are in the car. And were haggling over the price of the raft to get across a river.

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But what does "price" even mean then? In an economy unable to exponentially grow the word "price" looses any meaning due to hyperinflation. That's what modern market theory wants.

And if easy energy (nooo resource other than oil) gets less available, then we need to spend more effort in generating energy. Spending more effort on that means spending less effort on economic growth. And the way USA's and Europe's economies work, that means collapse.

You can't just assume, that the solution is just gonna come on its own. Because it is not going to happen.

Here I found an awwwesome website: http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse

Explains Peak Oil better than anything I have seen before.

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